Tropical Storm Emily Develops in the Atlantic Ocean, Poses Little Threat to Land
On Sunday morning, a storm developed in the Atlantic Ocean, although little danger to the land was anticipated.
The latest named storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storm Emily, developed in the Atlantic Ocean on Sunday.
Characteristics of Tropical Storm Emily and its Impact on Hurricane Season Predictions
The storm reportedly had sustained winds of 50 miles per hour, according to the National Hurricane Center. Tropical disturbances are given names when they have sustained winds of 39 mph. A storm turns into a hurricane once winds hit 74 mph, and a major hurricane at 111 mph.
About 1,000 miles west of Senegal, near the Cabo Verde Islands, Emily formed and is currently traveling 10 mph to the west-northwest. Forecasters stated that the storm has likely already achieved its peak power and that it will not affect land.
A “near-normal” number of 12 to 17 named storms was projected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in late May. Officials from NOAA updated their prediction to 14 to 21 storms on August 10.
After two exceptionally active Atlantic hurricane seasons during which forecasters were forced to use backup lists because they were out of names, there were 14 named storms last year. (The year 2020 saw a record-high 30 named storms.)
The Influence of El Niño, Climate Change, and Unusual Factors on Storm Patterns and Intensity
El Nio is a trend that has been present this year since June. The intermittent climatic phenomena often reduces the frequency of Atlantic storms and can have wide-ranging consequences on global weather.
El Nio increases the amount of wind shear, or the shift in wind direction and speed from the surface of the ocean or land into the atmosphere, in the Atlantic. Increased wind shear instability reduces the likelihood of the calm circumstances necessary for hurricane formation.
In the Pacific, El Nio has the opposite effect, causing the amount of wind shear to decrease.
The increased sea surface temperatures this year also provide a number of dangers, including the potential to supercharge storms.
It is now harder to make reliable storm predictions due to this peculiar convergence of circumstances.
After NOAA announced its revised prognosis in August, Mr. Klotzbach observed, “Things just don’t feel right.” “There are just a lot of weird things going on,” the speaker said.
The overwhelming majority of scientists agree that hurricanes are getting stronger due to climate change. Overall, there may not be more named storms, but there are more major hurricanes on the horizon.
Storms’ potential to drop large amounts of rain is also being impacted by climate change. A named storm can hold and produce more rainfall as a result of increased air moisture content due to global warming, as was the case with Hurricane Harvey in Texas in 2017, where certain regions received more than 40 inches of rain in less than 48 hours.
Over the past few decades, storms have slowed down and lingered over certain regions for longer, according to researchers.
The amount of moisture that a storm may absorb rises as it slows over water. The amount of rain that falls over a particular area rises when the storm slows over land. For instance, Hurricane Dorian in 2019 slowed to a crawl over the northwest Bahamas, causing a total of 22.84 inches of rain to fall in Hope Town throughout the storm.
Greater storm surge, quicker intensification, and a wider range of tropical systems are further possible implications of climate change.
